Haiti and Iraq

There are some in the Bush Administration who seem to believe that by waving some kind of magic wand, the US and its allies can create a stable democracy in Iraq. All you have to do, they say, is have the right kind of elections and establish the right kind of governing institutions. Then, when these things are properly set up, they tell us, Presto! American troops will be able come home permanently.

But this idea is simplistic and just so much damn fool nonsense. What’s worse, it is a formula for future disaster, as anyone can see, who has followed the events unfolding in Haiti.

Haiti, in fact, is one good reason why the US can never completely withdraw from Iraq. There is  no way the US and its allies can just leave.

The US withdrew its troops from Haiti in the year 2000, after going in there in 1994 to restore a democratically elected leader. But things went downhill from that day on. This is saying a lot when you understand that Haiti has one of the highest unemployment rates, poverty rates and illiteracy rates in Latin America; besides having no history of stable democratic institutions.

After propping up Jean-Bertrand Aristide, and chasing out the military officers who had earlier removed him from power, the US pulled out of Haiti in 2000, leaving, of course, a power-vacuum. Then, the same age-old pattern of rule by gangs and political thugs started in again. Aristide (who has now fled the country) became just another  leader of one group of thugs who intended, it seems, to use constitutional power to make Aristide simply another Haitian dictator for life. He and his family and his cronies.

The murder, torture, civil unrest , and outright brutality now going on from all sides, is what should have been expected, once American troops left that island nation.

Democracy can’t take hold in Haiti for many reasons.   Poverty is the main reason.  Poverty  is the rule in Haiti and there is little chance of economic growth because there is no rule of law and no real social infrastructure in the country. Which means foreign investors tend to stay away. The economy and the standard of living therefore  keeps declining. And it doesn’t look like things will get better anytime soon, not without some long-term help.

Now look at Iraq.

There’s every reason to think that things in Iraq will turn out much the same way Haiti did, no matter when (if ever) elections are held and some sort of governing body established. In order to guarantee stability in Iraq, the US and its allies will have to occupy that country for many years to come. Perhaps several generations, until democratic institutions are more or less well-established. Iraqis , like Haitians, have not governed themselves in a democratic way in the past and do not understand democracy in the Western sense.

And just look at the Iraqis.  If given a free hand, the Iraqis would quickly elect either a religious fanatic and establish a theocracy, or simply vote themselves another Baath dictatorship;--which would rapidly turn Iraq into a carbon copy of the regime the US and the UK recently took out.

As to Haiti, there is no real experience of democratic government with its requirements for the rule of law, free elections, civil liberties and the protection of private property.

If democracy is going to come to either Haiti or Iraq; a true  democracy, the US and its allies will simply have to assume some kind of permanent protectorate relationship with those countries. It will probably entail some sort of military-civil occupation which will require a long term commitment. Hopefully with UN support. In other words for democracy to prevail in countries with no history of democracy the US along with the UN must get involved for the long haul and  forget all this nonsense about  "exit strategies."

For Haiti and Iraq, there can be no exit strategy. Ignoring Haiti  means having to deal with thousands of boat people trying to escape to the US any way they can. Simply pulling out of Iraq means another radical Islamic theocracy or the same kind of regime we just spent so much blood and treasure on removing.

Anyway you cut it; the US, hopefully in cooperation with the UN, is in for the long haul in both the Caribbean and the Middle East. There’s just no other choice.

Punditwalla--