January 12, 2007

Hearkening After Prophecies and Dreams

Militarily and politically Iraq continues to fall apart.  The president keeps trying to put it back together again. He's been at it for four years now and nothing's  worked.   So, according to his speech to the nation the other day,  Mr Bush  wants to try something new. He's done his homework.  He's consulted, he says, with his national security team, his military commanders, diplomats and allies.  He's consulted with members of  Congress from both parties, as well as the members of the Iraq Study Group. 

Now as most people know, Mr Bush's  national security team, his military commanders, US  diplomats, those few remaining US allies,  members of  Congress from both parties, and  members of the Iraq Study Group (not to mention the American people) all feel about the same way;--the best approach to Iraq now,  is for the US to withdraw its forces and redeploy into other areas of the Middle East.  Most Americans understand that the Iraq conflict is essentially a sectarian  civil war and  want no part of it.

You'd think the president would understand this and act upon it.   You'd be wrong, of course, for like King Edward in Shakespeare's Richard III, he

Hearkens after prophecies and dreams and from the cross-row plucks a copy of the Weekly Standard. 

He's done this because basically Mr Bush hasn't the faintest idea what to do in Iraq, and in desperation, consults the various Neocon prophets,  dreamers, soothsayers and other crackpots  now working for the  the Weekly Standard for advice.  

Apparently Neocon intellectuals like  Robert Kagen and William Kristol (among others) have convinced Mr Bush that a 'surge' of about   20,000 or so new US soldiers in Iraq will turn the tide.  The bulk of these forces are to be put into Baghdad and somehow or another embedded with ragtag Iraqi forces. Together these forces will clear and hold various areas in and around Baghdad and thus put a stop to sectarian violence.   This plan will require the cooperation of the current Shia-dominated government of PM al-Maliki, which according to Mr Bush will be given. 

This is where the dreaming comes in. 

There's no reason to believe, based on past performance, that al-Maliki and his Shia supporters will do anything to assist US forces to control Baghdad in any significant way, or that his government will do anything to challenge  Shiite clerical leader Muqtada al-Sadr  and his 60,00 man militia.  All anyone gets from al-Maliki is a lot of meaningless rhetoric about cooperation.  Fact is, he's interfered with US operations before and there's no reason to believe he'll not interfere again at some point in the future.   Of course facts, when they conflict with Neocon delusions  usually lose out. 

Mr Bush's policy is not going to accomplish anything but an increase in bloodshed and further expenditure of American treasure.  The Iraqis (Shia and Sunni)  clearly do not want democracy in the sense most Americans understand it; they want some sort of elective theocracy and each side is  willing to kill the other side  large numbers in order to achieve it. The US is involved in a sectarian civil war, which is chewing up  resources needed to fight terrorists in  Afghanistan and elsewhere.  

The US cannot impose democracy and stability at the point of a bayonet and should stop trying.

Posted  11:00 AM  PST

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